Indus Water Dispute: The Bone Of Contention

Guest Blog by Anwar Ahmed

As fresh water becomes scarce globally, the countries have ventured into new projects to ensure a sustained supply of water for their safe human consumption. Today, more than a billion people in the world do not have access to fresh water. As per the United Nations estimates, half of the countries world wide would face water shortages by 2025 and by 2050, as many as three out of four people would face water scarcity. The Asian Continent stands out singularly with respect to its relatively short availability of fresh water vis-à-vis per capita consumption. As the Continent accommodates more than half of the world population, Asia has less water to offer per person when compared to others in different continents. With the rapid urbanization of the Continent, the regions water resources are coming under increased burden. With climate change adversely affecting the already precarious situation also, the reduced access to fresh water in not too distant a future would exacerbate political and economic tensions between regional countries. The US National Intelligence Council in its ‘Global Trends - 2025′ report has forecasted that “cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to become more difficult within and between states” in Asia. The most important water related problems emanate in South Asian region of the continent wherein out of the seven South Asian countries, India is one that has developed disputes with three of its neighbours i.e. Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. It is infringing on their water rights by usurping their resources with potential to ultimately drain their respective resources during hostilities through construction of various projects on rivers water flowing downstream.

Pakistan, due to its cultural traditions and customs, has a 77% dependency on water, the highest amongst the major South Asian countries. The partitioning of India and Pakistan into two separate entities also divided waters of Indus Basin Rivers controls of many of which came under Indian control. In 1948, after India clandestinely started controlling flow of river water into Pakistan, the issue became internationalized and after years of negotiations, the World Bank brokered a deal between the two countries in 1960 that became known as “Indus Water Treaty”. The Treaty provided exclusive rights to India over rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej whereas the use of western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were allowed to Pakistan. As per the Agreement, the flow of these rivers into Pakistan can neither be stopped nor hindered. There are few exceptions in the treaty however, that do allow India to use the water for domestic use and generation of hydro-electric power precluding building of any storage thereon.

The Treaty also established a Permanent Indus Commission comprising respective engineers of the respective countries to monitor violations and smoothen out differences that may arise. India formally inaugurated controversial Baglihar dam in October 2008 in clear violation of the Treaty on the Chenab River. India first shared information on the project in 1992 and after a number of meetings between the two sides, the matter was referred to World Bank. The neutral expert nominated to resolve the issue gave a dubious decision that failed to address Pakistan’s concerns. Pakistan is of the view that the neutral expert exceeded his mandate in deciding the matter within the context of various clauses of the Treaty, reserves the right to refer his determination to Court of Arbitration. India meanwhile has commenced work on other two controversial dams on River Chenab named Uri-1 and Uri-2. As far as River Jhelum is concerned India has started construction work on Kishenganga Hydropower Project. The resultant squeeze on these two rivers waters downstream will have grave consequences on the agriculture sector of Pakistan with potential to drastically affect its economy.

Indian Prime Minister while inaugurating a 450-MW hydroelectric Baglihar Dam said: “It is a matter of satisfaction that the reconstruction programme comprising 67 projects is well under way with 19 projects completed, one of which is Baglihar Dam that I inaugurated today”. With such like projects to materialize on rivers flowing into Pakistan, the country will be increasingly confronted with impending water shortages. As per one of the surveys of 2009, the availability of water has declined from 5000 cubic meters per capita 60 years ago to 1200 cubic meters per capita in 2009. It is also estimated that by 2020, the availability of water is estimated to fall to 800 cubic meters per capita. Concerns have repeatedly been conveyed to India over its manipulation of Chenab waters even at the highest forum however, it remains oblivious of Pakistani concerns. It was for this reason that our Foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi on June 6 this year openly accused India of violating Indus Water Treaty and warned that failure to resolve the water disputes “could lead to conflict in the region”.

Though India as per the treaty is allowed to generate power from the waters of these rivers yet it did stop Chenab river flow on various occasions notable being from August 19 to September 5 wherein Pakistan was deprived of 1.2 million cusecs of water at one time alone. Besides the potential to strangulate Pakistan economically, the stoppage of river flows has security concerns for the defense of Pakistan also. The dams constructed on these rivers can be used to dry out major canals and distributaries during tensions and war times by India which otherwise are used for irrigation purposes. Also, should any dam malfunction or collapse, it will have grave consequences for Pakistan in the shape of massive floods in its areas. There is all the likely hood that India would further exploit the loop holes and weak technical clauses of the Indus Water Treaty to its advantage. Accordingly, a greater perception is developing in the national print and electronic media to make our water rights, a corner stone of our foreign policy as it being the vital issue for the national security of Pakistan.

Like the Kashmir dispute, the water dispute between the two countries should also be made as a vital part of our foreign policy affecting our national security. These two major issues between the two major South Asian countries need to be resolved as early as possible to remove the war clouds that the two nations have sadly been often subjected to in the past. India’s delaying tactics to restart the stalled bilateral negotiations on one pretext or the other are simply alienating the two nations further and are also not in the interest of India itself. There is no option for the two countries but to establish lasting cordial relationship to secure their inter linked interests and avoid frequent episodes of discords over various issues.